The astute among you will notice that this weekly report doesn’t actually cover the entire week. That’s because I’ve have decided to shutdown my training and I will not be doing any more workouts before my race on Sunday.
I was sick and I am still recovering, but I’m not at 100%. I’m probably at 95%. I figured it was best to completely rest so I can be as healthy as possibly.
This week I only managed to do one run and then a 2500 yard swim yesterday. Its crazy, but when I checked, I realized that I had gone two weeks without swimming. This was due to work travel and then being sick last week.
I managed to pack everything yesterday as I fly to Phoenix early Thursday morning. It’s amazing how much stuff is needed for the Ironman when you actor in all the clothes, nutrition, and equipment. I’ve been working off various checklists as I don’t want to get to Arizona and find that I forgot something, especially if it’s something I can’t easily buy.
Now my days are spent worrying about the event and working through what can go wrong. I don’t know what the probably of my not finishing is, whether it’s 50%, 30%, 10% etc. but I decided that if I can get through the swim within the cutoff that probability will drop by half. The swim is the shortest event in terms of both time and distance, but for me, it’ll account for half the probability of not finishing.
If I can then do a bike split in the 6 hr 30 min range, the probability of not finishing will then drop by half again. I’m fully capable of doing a 6 hr or just over 6 hr bile split so the biggest concern or risk factor will be getting one or more flat tires or doing something silly like not following my nutrition plan – something I found out during my sprint triathlon that is easy to forget when you get caught up in the race.
If I can then start the run with 7-8 hours of available time, then I should be almost guaranteed of finishing as I can walk the entire marathon in that time if needed.
I do have some margin for error. For example getting a flat will not be the end of my race, but my margin is probably smaller than most.